Primera Division · Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · 01:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Alianza Lima vs Cienciano (Primera Division, Wednesday, 4 November 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Alianza Lima 62%, the draw 21% and Cienciano 17%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Alianza Lima win | 62% | Pick |
| Draw | 21% | |
| Cienciano win | 17% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 30 | 40% | 17% | 53% |
| Cienciano | 30 | 60% | 37% | 63% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 49% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 72% | 78% | 50 |
| Cienciano | 74% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Alianza Lima season stats · Cienciano season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Alianza Lima 12 of 30 (9 of 15 at home), Cienciano 18 of 30 (10 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 45% and 57%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 56%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 52%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 60% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 52%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.11 (Alianza Lima) v 1.01 (Cienciano) give 60%; 30% weight: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.