Championship · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 20:00 UK time
CompactStats rates West Brom vs Southampton (Championship, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with West Brom 36%, the draw 26% and Southampton 38%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 60% | Yes |
| West Brom win | 36% | |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Southampton win | 38% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 12 | 42% | 25% | 67% |
| Southampton | 12 | 58% | 42% | 75% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 41% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 64% | 72% | 50 |
| Southampton | 68% | 86% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: West Brom season stats · Southampton season stats · Championship table and form
League. Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. West Brom 5 of 12 (2 of 6 at home), Southampton 7 of 12 (3 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 49% and 55%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 49% and 57%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.4 (West Brom) v 1.45 (Southampton) give 54%; 30% weight: 53%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.