Championship · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 19:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Watford vs Lincoln (Championship, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Watford 43%, the draw 27% and Lincoln 29%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Watford win | 43% | Pick |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Lincoln win | 29% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 39% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 41% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Watford season stats · Lincoln season stats · Championship table and form
League. Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Watford 5 of 12 (4 of 6 at home), Lincoln 7 of 12 (3 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 49% and 55%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 52%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.39 (Watford) v 1.1 (Lincoln) give 46%; 30% weight: 50%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.