J2 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Ventforet Kofu vs Albirex Niigata (J2 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with Ventforet Kofu 34%, the draw 27% and Albirex Niigata 39%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | Yes |
| Ventforet Kofu win | 34% | |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Albirex Niigata win | 39% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 62% | 15% | 54% |
| Albirex Niigata | 13 | 69% | 31% | 69% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 30% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 39% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ventforet Kofu | 64% | 70% | 50 |
| Albirex Niigata | 78% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Ventforet Kofu season stats · Albirex Niigata season stats · J2 League table and form
League. J2 League has had over 2.5 goals in 46% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Ventforet Kofu 8 of 13 (4 of 7 at home), Albirex Niigata 9 of 13 (4 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 54%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 44% and 50%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.27 (Ventforet Kofu) v 1.38 (Albirex Niigata) give 50%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.