J3 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kagoshima United (J3 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Renofa Yamaguchi 47%, the draw 27% and Kagoshima United 26%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Renofa Yamaguchi win | 47% | Pick |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Kagoshima United win | 26% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 13 | 38% | 15% | 31% |
| Kagoshima United | 13 | 69% | 46% | 77% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 49% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 70% | 70% | 50 |
| Kagoshima United | 68% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 64% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Renofa Yamaguchi season stats · Kagoshima United season stats · J3 League table and form
League. J3 League has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Renofa Yamaguchi 5 of 13 (1 of 5 at home), Kagoshima United 9 of 13 (4 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 45% and 56%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 45% and 53%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.5 (Renofa Yamaguchi) v 1.06 (Kagoshima United) give 47%; 30% weight: 47%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 48%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.