Championship · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 19:45 UK time
CompactStats rates QPR vs Burnley (Championship, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with QPR 55%, the draw 21% and Burnley 24%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | – |
| Both teams to score | 62% | Yes |
| QPR win | 55% | Pick |
| Draw | 21% | |
| Burnley win | 24% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 61% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 38% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 61% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 41% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: QPR season stats · Burnley season stats · Championship table and form
League. Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. QPR 7 of 12 (4 of 6 at home), Burnley 9 of 12 (5 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 60%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 58% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 55%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 55%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.28 (QPR) v 1.49 (Burnley) give 73%; 30% weight: 60%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.