J2 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki (J2 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with Omiya Ardija 52%, the draw 23% and Iwaki 25%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | Yes |
| Omiya Ardija win | 52% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Iwaki win | 25% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 54% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omiya Ardija | 13 | 62% | 46% | 69% |
| Iwaki | 13 | 54% | 38% | 62% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 30% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 39% |
| Goal in both halves | 54% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omiya Ardija | 64% | 78% | 50 |
| Iwaki | 68% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Omiya Ardija season stats · Iwaki season stats · J2 League table and form
League. J2 League has had over 2.5 goals in 46% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Omiya Ardija 8 of 13 (5 of 7 at home), Iwaki 7 of 13 (4 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 51% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 48%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 100% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.88 (Omiya Ardija) v 1.24 (Iwaki) give 60%; 30% weight: 53%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.