J3 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Nara Club vs Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with Nara Club 60%, the draw 20% and Thespakusatsu Gunma 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | Yes |
| Nara Club win | 60% | Pick |
| Draw | 20% | |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nara Club | 13 | 69% | 62% | 69% |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 13 | 46% | 31% | 54% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 40% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 49% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nara Club | 76% | 84% | 50 |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 74% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 64% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Nara Club season stats · Thespakusatsu Gunma season stats · J3 League table and form
League. J3 League has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Nara Club 9 of 13 (5 of 6 at home), Thespakusatsu Gunma 6 of 13 (2 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 56% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 51% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.26 (Nara Club) v 1.25 (Thespakusatsu Gunma) give 68%; 30% weight: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.