J2 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis (J2 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with Montedio Yamagata 29%, the draw 31% and Tokushima Vortis 40%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | – |
| Both teams to score | 46% | No |
| Montedio Yamagata win | 29% | |
| Draw | 31% | |
| Tokushima Vortis win | 40% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 45% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 23% | 0% | 15% |
| Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 38% | 8% | 31% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 30% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 34% | 39% |
| Goal in both halves | 45% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montedio Yamagata | 66% | 78% | 50 |
| Tokushima Vortis | 56% | 62% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Montedio Yamagata season stats · Tokushima Vortis season stats · J2 League table and form
League. J2 League has had over 2.5 goals in 46% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Montedio Yamagata 3 of 13 (1 of 8 at home), Tokushima Vortis 5 of 13 (3 of 7 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 38% and 43%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 51% and 35%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 44%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 25% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 43%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.91 (Montedio Yamagata) v 1.12 (Tokushima Vortis) give 33%; 30% weight: 40%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 42%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.