J3 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Kitakyushu vs Biwako Shiga (J3 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Kitakyushu 48%, the draw 25% and Biwako Shiga 27%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Kitakyushu win | 48% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Biwako Shiga win | 27% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 49% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitakyushu | 13 | 62% | 38% | 69% |
| Biwako Shiga | 13 | 69% | 38% | 46% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 49% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 49% | 49% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kitakyushu | 56% | 84% | 50 |
| Biwako Shiga | 67% | 87% | 15 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 64% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Kitakyushu season stats · Biwako Shiga season stats · J3 League table and form
League. J3 League has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Kitakyushu 8 of 13 (3 of 7 at home), Biwako Shiga 9 of 13 (5 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 53% and 56%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 56%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.66 (Kitakyushu) v 1.18 (Biwako Shiga) give 54%; 30% weight: 52%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.