J2 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 04:55 UK time
CompactStats rates Kataller Toyama vs Vegalta Sendai (J2 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Kataller Toyama 25%, the draw 27% and Vegalta Sendai 48%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Kataller Toyama win | 25% | |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Vegalta Sendai win | 48% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 54% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kataller Toyama | 13 | 46% | 31% | 38% |
| Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 46% | 31% | 54% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 29% | 30% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 33% | 39% |
| Goal in both halves | 54% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kataller Toyama | 68% | 78% | 50 |
| Vegalta Sendai | 74% | 66% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Kataller Toyama season stats · Vegalta Sendai season stats · J2 League table and form
League. J2 League has had over 2.5 goals in 46% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Kataller Toyama 6 of 13 (3 of 7 at home), Vegalta Sendai 6 of 13 (3 of 7 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 46% and 46%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 44% and 43%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 44%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 41%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.98 (Kataller Toyama) v 1.47 (Vegalta Sendai) give 44%; 30% weight: 42%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 44%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.