J3 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Kamatamare Sanuki vs Matsumoto Yamaga (J3 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Kamatamare Sanuki 30%, the draw 27% and Matsumoto Yamaga 43%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Kamatamare Sanuki win | 30% | |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Matsumoto Yamaga win | 43% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | |
| Goal in both halves | 45% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamatamare Sanuki | 13 | 69% | 31% | 54% |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 13 | 38% | 23% | 46% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 39% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 45% | 49% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamatamare Sanuki | 64% | 70% | 50 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 64% | 68% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 64% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Kamatamare Sanuki season stats · Matsumoto Yamaga season stats · J3 League table and form
League. J3 League has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Kamatamare Sanuki 9 of 13 (5 of 6 at home), Matsumoto Yamaga 5 of 13 (2 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 56% and 45%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 60% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.16 (Kamatamare Sanuki) v 1.44 (Matsumoto Yamaga) give 48%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.