Primera A · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 20:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Deportivo Pereira 26%, the draw 29% and Deportes Tolima 45%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Deportivo Pereira win | 26% | |
| Draw | 29% | |
| Deportes Tolima win | 45% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 72% | |
| Goal in both halves | 49% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pereira | 34 | 41% | 29% | 44% |
| Deportes Tolima | 39 | 41% | 23% | 51% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 28% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 72% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 36% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 49% | 50% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 41% | 2nd 40% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pereira | 64% | 70% | 50 |
| Deportes Tolima | 60% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 68% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Deportivo Pereira season stats · Deportes Tolima season stats · Primera A table and form
League. Primera A has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Deportivo Pereira 14 of 34 (7 of 16 at home), Deportes Tolima 16 of 39 (8 of 19 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 43% and 42%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 43% and 42%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 43%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 20% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 42%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.94 (Deportivo Pereira) v 1.33 (Deportes Tolima) give 40%; 30% weight: 41%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 43%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.