Primera Division · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 20:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT (Primera Division, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Comerciantes Unidos 44%, the draw 29% and ADT 27%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Comerciantes Unidos win | 44% | Pick |
| Draw | 29% | |
| ADT win | 27% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 48% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 30 | 53% | 43% | 67% |
| ADT | 30 | 47% | 27% | 53% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 41% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 48% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 62% | 76% | 50 |
| ADT | 62% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Comerciantes Unidos season stats · ADT season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Comerciantes Unidos 16 of 30 (6 of 15 at home), ADT 14 of 30 (7 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 53% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 50%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.33 (Comerciantes Unidos) v 0.96 (ADT) give 40%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.