Championship · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 19:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Charlton vs Bolton (Championship, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Charlton 38%, the draw 29% and Bolton 33%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Charlton win | 38% | Pick |
| Draw | 29% | |
| Bolton win | 33% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 41% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Charlton season stats · Bolton season stats · Championship table and form
League. Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Charlton 6 of 12 (2 of 6 at home), Bolton 8 of 12 (4 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 58%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 67% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.19 (Charlton) v 1.08 (Bolton) give 40%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.