Serie A · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 22:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol (Serie A, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Chapecoense-sc 31%, the draw 27% and Mirassol 42%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Chapecoense-sc win | 31% | |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Mirassol win | 42% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 58% | 35% | 65% |
| Mirassol | 40 | 48% | 25% | 60% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 66% | 80% | 50 |
| Mirassol | 72% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Chapecoense-sc season stats · Mirassol season stats · Serie A table and form
League. Serie A has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Chapecoense-sc 18 of 31 (11 of 15 at home), Mirassol 19 of 40 (8 of 19 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 54% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 51% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.21 (Chapecoense-sc) v 1.45 (Mirassol) give 50%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.