Primera A · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 01:15 UK time
CompactStats rates Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Bucaramanga 36%, the draw 29% and Atletico Nacional 36%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Bucaramanga win | 36% | Pick |
| Draw | 29% | |
| Atletico Nacional win | 36% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | |
| Goal in both halves | 54% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaramanga | 33 | 45% | 27% | 58% |
| Atletico Nacional | 40 | 63% | 25% | 45% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 39% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 54% | 50% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 40% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaramanga | 64% | 66% | 50 |
| Atletico Nacional | 74% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 68% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Bucaramanga season stats · Atletico Nacional season stats · Primera A table and form
League. Primera A has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Bucaramanga 15 of 33 (8 of 16 at home), Atletico Nacional 25 of 40 (13 of 21 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 45% and 56%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 45% and 56%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.2 (Bucaramanga) v 1.19 (Atletico Nacional) give 43%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.