Championship · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 19:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Blackburn vs Stoke City (Championship, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 48% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Blackburn 41%, the draw 29% and Stoke City 29%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Blackburn win | 41% | Pick |
| Draw | 29% | |
| Stoke City win | 29% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 12 | 75% | 33% | 75% |
| Stoke City | 12 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 41% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 66% | 70% | 50 |
| Stoke City | 68% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Blackburn season stats · Stoke City season stats · Championship table and form
League. Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Blackburn 9 of 12 (5 of 6 at home), Stoke City 8 of 12 (4 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 60% and 58%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 51%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.24 (Blackburn) v 0.99 (Stoke City) give 38%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 48%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.