Championship · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 20:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Birmingham vs Millwall (Championship, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Birmingham 55%, the draw 23% and Millwall 22%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Birmingham win | 55% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Millwall win | 22% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 12 | 67% | 33% | 58% |
| Millwall | 12 | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 37% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 44% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 41% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 84% | 74% | 50 |
| Millwall | 60% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Birmingham season stats · Millwall season stats · Championship table and form
League. Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Birmingham 8 of 12 (5 of 6 at home), Millwall 9 of 12 (4 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 58% and 60%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 51% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 52%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 67% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.88 (Birmingham) v 1.12 (Millwall) give 58%; 30% weight: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.