Ekstraklasa · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce (Ekstraklasa, Monday, 2 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with Zaglebie Lubin 51%, the draw 28% and Korona Kielce 21%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | Yes |
| Zaglebie Lubin win | 51% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Korona Kielce win | 21% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 50% | 33% | 58% |
| Korona Kielce | 12 | 33% | 17% | 58% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Lubin | 70% | 70% | 50 |
| Korona Kielce | 72% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Zaglebie Lubin season stats · Korona Kielce season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form
League. Ekstraklasa has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Zaglebie Lubin 6 of 12 (2 of 6 at home), Korona Kielce 4 of 12 (3 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 46%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 20% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.44 (Zaglebie Lubin) v 0.83 (Korona Kielce) give 40%; 30% weight: 45%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.