Veikkausliiga · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 16:00 UK time
CompactStats rates VPS vs HJK Helsinki (Veikkausliiga, Monday, 2 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with VPS 30%, the draw 29% and HJK Helsinki 42%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| VPS win | 30% | |
| Draw | 29% | |
| HJK Helsinki win | 42% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 57% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS | 29 | 34% | 24% | 41% |
| HJK Helsinki | 29 | 62% | 34% | 45% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 39% | 37% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 52% | 53% |
| Goal in both halves | 57% | 60% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 49% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| VPS | 72% | 68% | 50 |
| HJK Helsinki | 78% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 71% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: VPS season stats · HJK Helsinki season stats · Veikkausliiga table and form
League. Veikkausliiga has had over 2.5 goals in 60% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. VPS 10 of 29 (5 of 15 at home), HJK Helsinki 18 of 29 (7 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 46% and 61%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 63%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 57%.
Head to head. 8 meetings in 3 years, 75% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 58%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.04 (VPS) v 1.3 (HJK Helsinki) give 42%; 30% weight: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.