Segunda · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Valladolid vs Leganes (Segunda, Monday, 2 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with Valladolid 56%, the draw 26% and Leganes 18%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | No |
| Valladolid win | 56% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Leganes win | 18% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid | 11 | 55% | 36% | 55% |
| Leganes | 11 | 27% | 18% | 27% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid | 68% | 82% | 50 |
| Leganes | 60% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Valladolid season stats · Leganes season stats · Segunda table and form
League. Segunda has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Valladolid 6 of 11 (4 of 5 at home), Leganes 3 of 11 (2 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 43%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 46%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.59 (Valladolid) v 0.77 (Leganes) give 42%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.