Primera Division · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 18:15 UK time
CompactStats rates UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso (Primera Division, Monday, 2 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with UTC Cajamarca 25%, the draw 30% and Deportivo Garcilaso 46%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| UTC Cajamarca win | 25% | |
| Draw | 30% | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso win | 46% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 30 | 57% | 40% | 63% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 30 | 40% | 30% | 47% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 66% | 78% | 50 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 52% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: UTC Cajamarca season stats · Deportivo Garcilaso season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. UTC Cajamarca 17 of 30 (7 of 15 at home), Deportivo Garcilaso 12 of 30 (3 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 45%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 54% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 20% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.86 (UTC Cajamarca) v 1.27 (Deportivo Garcilaso) give 36%; 30% weight: 45%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.