Premyer Liqa · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 15:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa, Monday, 2 November 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Sumqayıt 53%, the draw 23% and Safa Baku 24%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Sumqayıt win | 53% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Safa Baku win | 24% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 31% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 50% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 49% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Sumqayıt season stats · Safa Baku season stats · Premyer Liqa table and form
League. Premyer Liqa has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Sumqayıt 5 of 8 (3 of 5 at home), Safa Baku 4 of 9 (2 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.92 (Sumqayıt) v 1.22 (Safa Baku) give 61%; 30% weight: 53%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.