Serie A · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Sassuolo vs Fiorentina (Serie A, Monday, 2 November 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Sassuolo 51%, the draw 23% and Fiorentina 27%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Sassuolo win | 51% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Fiorentina win | 27% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 8 | 75% | 38% | 88% |
| Fiorentina | 8 | 88% | 38% | 75% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 46% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 72% | 78% | 50 |
| Fiorentina | 72% | 86% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Sassuolo season stats · Fiorentina season stats · Serie A table and form
League. Serie A has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Sassuolo 6 of 8 (2 of 3 at home), Fiorentina 7 of 8 (4 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 58%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 51%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.96 (Sassuolo) v 1.38 (Fiorentina) give 65%; 30% weight: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.