Serie A · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 23:00 UK time
CompactStats rates RB Bragantino vs Santos (Serie A, Monday, 2 November 2026) 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with RB Bragantino 40%, the draw 25% and Santos 35%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 56% | Yes |
| RB Bragantino win | 40% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Santos win | 35% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 57% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino | 41 | 39% | 12% | 49% |
| Santos | 41 | 61% | 27% | 71% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 57% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino | 68% | 80% | 50 |
| Santos | 74% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: RB Bragantino season stats · Santos season stats · Serie A table and form
League. Serie A has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. RB Bragantino 16 of 41 (11 of 20 at home), Santos 25 of 41 (15 of 21 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 42% and 56%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 43% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.56 (RB Bragantino) v 1.43 (Santos) give 58%; 30% weight: 51%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 52%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.