Ekstraklasa · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 19:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa, Monday, 2 November 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with Raków Częstochowa 30%, the draw 27% and Pogon Szczecin 44%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | Yes |
| Raków Częstochowa win | 30% | |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Pogon Szczecin win | 44% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 92% | 33% | 92% |
| Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 36% | 27% | 45% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 49% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 66% | 86% | 50 |
| Pogon Szczecin | 78% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Raków Częstochowa season stats · Pogon Szczecin season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form
League. Ekstraklasa has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Raków Częstochowa 11 of 12 (6 of 6 at home), Pogon Szczecin 4 of 11 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 66% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 55% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 17% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 52%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.16 (Raków Częstochowa) v 1.47 (Pogon Szczecin) give 49%; 30% weight: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.