Liga 2 · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 18:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Penafiel vs Feirense (Liga 2, Monday, 2 November 2026) 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with Penafiel 54%, the draw 27% and Feirense 19%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | – |
| Both teams to score | 47% | No |
| Penafiel win | 54% | Pick |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Feirense win | 19% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 46% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 26% | 27% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 41% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 46% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 76% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Penafiel season stats · Feirense season stats · Liga 2 table and form
League. Liga 2 has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Penafiel 6 of 8 (2 of 4 at home), Feirense 2 of 8 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 53% and 40%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 44% and 44%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 44%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 80% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 46%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.52 (Penafiel) v 0.8 (Feirense) give 41%; 30% weight: 45%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 46%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.