Premier League · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 20:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Newcastle vs Everton (Premier League, Monday, 2 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Newcastle 41%, the draw 26% and Everton 32%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Newcastle win | 41% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Everton win | 32% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | |
| Goal in both halves | 61% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 51% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 61% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 46% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 61% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Newcastle season stats · Everton season stats · Premier League table and form
League. Premier League has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Newcastle 5 of 8 (3 of 4 at home), Everton 2 of 8 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 56% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 58% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 54%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.45 (Newcastle) v 1.25 (Everton) give 51%; 30% weight: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.