Segunda · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 20:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Mallorca vs Cadiz (Segunda, Monday, 2 November 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Mallorca 64%, the draw 22% and Cadiz 14%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Mallorca win | 64% | Pick |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Cadiz win | 14% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 71% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Mallorca season stats · Cadiz season stats · Segunda table and form
League. Segunda has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Mallorca 2 of 11 (2 of 5 at home), Cadiz 5 of 11 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 40% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 51%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.94 (Mallorca) v 0.79 (Cadiz) give 51%; 30% weight: 49%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.