Primera Division · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 23:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud (Primera Division, Monday, 2 November 2026) 44% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Liverpool Montevideo 47%, the draw 28% and Juventud 25%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Liverpool Montevideo win | 47% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Juventud win | 25% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 62% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | |
| Goal in both halves | 45% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 33 | 42% | 21% | 45% |
| Juventud | 34 | 41% | 24% | 53% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 62% | 63% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 27% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 39% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 45% | 47% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 46% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 54% | 70% | 50 |
| Juventud | 68% | 68% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Liverpool Montevideo season stats · Juventud season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 43% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Liverpool Montevideo 14 of 33 (7 of 16 at home), Juventud 14 of 34 (9 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 43% and 42%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 43% and 43%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 43%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 41%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.43 (Liverpool Montevideo) v 0.96 (Juventud) give 43%; 30% weight: 42%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 44%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.