1. Lig · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor (1. Lig, Monday, 2 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Kayserispor 58%, the draw 22% and Muğlaspor 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Kayserispor win | 58% | Pick |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Muğlaspor win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 54% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | 12 | 58% | 42% | 42% |
| Muğlaspor | 12 | 42% | 33% | 42% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 37% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 50% |
| Goal in both halves | 54% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | 60% | 88% | 50 |
| Muğlaspor | 66% | 66% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 72% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Kayserispor season stats · Muğlaspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form
League. 1. Lig has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Kayserispor 7 of 12 (4 of 5 at home), Muğlaspor 5 of 12 (1 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 54% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.01 (Kayserispor) v 1.08 (Muğlaspor) give 60%; 30% weight: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.