Eerste Divisie · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 19:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda (Eerste Divisie, Monday, 2 November 2026) 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with Jong PSV U21 38%, the draw 25% and NAC Breda 37%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | – |
| Both teams to score | 62% | Yes |
| Jong PSV U21 win | 38% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| NAC Breda win | 37% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 80% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | |
| Goal in both halves | 65% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong PSV U21 | 12 | 58% | 50% | 83% |
| NAC Breda | 12 | 67% | 50% | 75% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 80% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 41% | 42% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | 85% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 49% | 55% |
| Goal in both halves | 65% | 66% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 48% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong PSV U21 | 84% | 86% | 50 |
| NAC Breda | 82% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 83% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Jong PSV U21 season stats · NAC Breda season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form
League. Eerste Divisie has had over 2.5 goals in 64% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Jong PSV U21 7 of 12 (2 of 6 at home), NAC Breda 8 of 12 (5 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 62% and 65%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 64% and 59%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 62%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 61%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.49 (Jong PSV U21) v 1.48 (NAC Breda) give 57%; 30% weight: 60%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.