Eerste Divisie · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 19:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Jong Ajax vs Vitesse (Eerste Divisie, Monday, 2 November 2026) 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with Jong Ajax 25%, the draw 24% and Vitesse 51%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | – |
| Both teams to score | 62% | Yes |
| Jong Ajax win | 25% | |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Vitesse win | 51% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 78% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 85% | |
| Goal in both halves | 69% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 78% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 41% | 42% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 85% | 85% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 54% | 55% |
| Goal in both halves | 69% | 66% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 48% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 83% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Jong Ajax season stats · Vitesse season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form
League. Eerste Divisie has had over 2.5 goals in 64% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Jong Ajax 8 of 12 (4 of 6 at home), Vitesse 6 of 12 (2 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 65% and 59%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 64% and 64%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 64%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 63%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.22 (Jong Ajax) v 1.83 (Vitesse) give 59%; 30% weight: 62%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.