Veikkausliiga · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 16:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Inter Turku vs Gnistan (Veikkausliiga, Monday, 2 November 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Inter Turku 53%, the draw 27% and Gnistan 19%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Inter Turku win | 53% | Pick |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Gnistan win | 19% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Turku | 29 | 31% | 14% | 41% |
| Gnistan | 29 | 45% | 31% | 55% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 37% | 37% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 53% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 60% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 49% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Turku | 70% | 70% | 50 |
| Gnistan | 74% | 86% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 71% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Inter Turku season stats · Gnistan season stats · Veikkausliiga table and form
League. Veikkausliiga has had over 2.5 goals in 60% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Inter Turku 9 of 29 (4 of 14 at home), Gnistan 13 of 29 (6 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 44% and 52%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 55%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 10 meetings in 3 years, 70% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 54%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.46 (Inter Turku) v 0.76 (Gnistan) give 38%; 30% weight: 49%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.