Primeira Liga · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 20:15 UK time
CompactStats rates GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC (Primeira Liga, Monday, 2 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with GIL Vicente 57%, the draw 26% and Vitória SC 18%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 47% | No |
| GIL Vicente win | 57% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Vitória SC win | 18% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 9 | 22% | 11% | 33% |
| Vitória SC | 9 | 33% | 22% | 33% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 35% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 41% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 72% | 72% | 50 |
| Vitória SC | 40% | 80% | 10 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: GIL Vicente season stats · Vitória SC season stats · Primeira Liga table and form
League. Primeira Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. GIL Vicente 2 of 9 (0 of 5 at home), Vitória SC 3 of 9 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 45% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.59 (GIL Vicente) v 0.76 (Vitória SC) give 42%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.