Allsvenskan · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 18:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Gais vs AIK Stockholm (Allsvenskan, Monday, 2 November 2026) 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Gais 44%, the draw 31% and AIK Stockholm 25%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Gais win | 44% | Pick |
| Draw | 31% | |
| AIK Stockholm win | 25% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 58% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gais | 25 | 36% | 20% | 36% |
| AIK Stockholm | 25 | 68% | 32% | 72% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 37% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 50% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 58% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gais | 76% | 80% | 50 |
| AIK Stockholm | 76% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Gais season stats · AIK Stockholm season stats · Allsvenskan table and form
League. Allsvenskan has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Gais 9 of 25 (3 of 13 at home), AIK Stockholm 17 of 25 (9 of 13 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 44% and 60%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 46% and 57%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 52%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.19 (Gais) v 0.83 (AIK Stockholm) give 33%; 30% weight: 44%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 46%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.