Primera A · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 23:10 UK time
CompactStats rates Cucuta vs Santa Fe (Primera A, Monday, 2 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Cucuta 28%, the draw 28% and Santa Fe 44%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Cucuta win | 28% | |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Santa Fe win | 44% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 50% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 40% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 68% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Cucuta season stats · Santa Fe season stats · Primera A table and form
League. Primera A has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Cucuta 18 of 34 (8 of 16 at home), Santa Fe 18 of 37 (7 of 18 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 50% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1 (Cucuta) v 1.34 (Santa Fe) give 41%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.