Liga MX · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 01:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Cruz Azul vs Leon (Liga MX, Monday, 2 November 2026) 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with Cruz Azul 62%, the draw 21% and Leon 17%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | – |
| Both teams to score | 60% | Yes |
| Cruz Azul win | 62% | Pick |
| Draw | 21% | |
| Leon win | 17% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 74% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 74% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 40% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 49% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 42% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Cruz Azul season stats · Leon season stats · Liga MX table and form
League. Liga MX has had over 2.5 goals in 55% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Cruz Azul 10 of 13 (5 of 7 at home), Leon 5 of 14 (2 of 7 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 62% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 57% and 53%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 55%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 100% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 57%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.09 (Cruz Azul) v 0.99 (Leon) give 59%; 30% weight: 58%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.