Primera · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 23:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Concepción vs Palestino (Primera, Monday, 2 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Concepción 36%, the draw 28% and Palestino 36%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Concepción win | 36% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Palestino win | 36% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 25 | 32% | 12% | 40% |
| Palestino | 25 | 56% | 32% | 64% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 29% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 44% | 46% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 54% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 48% | 2nd 51% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 76% | 76% | 25 |
| Palestino | 66% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Concepción season stats · Palestino season stats · Primera table and form
League. Primera has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Concepción 8 of 25 (3 of 13 at home), Palestino 14 of 25 (7 of 12 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 42% and 54%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 42% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.23 (Concepción) v 1.23 (Palestino) give 45%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.