First League · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 15:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa (First League, Monday, 2 November 2026) 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Cherno More Varna 42%, the draw 25% and Botev Vratsa 33%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Cherno More Varna win | 42% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Botev Vratsa win | 33% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 59% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 45% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 11 | 55% | 45% | 64% |
| Botev Vratsa | 12 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 59% | 64% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 25% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 37% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 45% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 64% | 68% | 50 |
| Botev Vratsa | 42% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Cherno More Varna season stats · Botev Vratsa season stats · First League table and form
League. First League has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Cherno More Varna 6 of 11 (4 of 5 at home), Botev Vratsa 6 of 12 (5 of 7 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 48% and 46%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 43% and 41%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 42%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 43%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.55 (Cherno More Varna) v 1.35 (Botev Vratsa) give 55%; 30% weight: 47%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 48%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.