Primeira Liga · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 20:15 UK time
CompactStats rates Benfica vs Alverca (Primeira Liga, Monday, 2 November 2026) 61% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with Benfica 66%, the draw 19% and Alverca 15%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | Yes |
| Benfica win | 66% | Pick |
| Draw | 19% | |
| Alverca win | 15% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 35% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Benfica season stats · Alverca season stats · Primeira Liga table and form
League. Primeira Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Benfica 7 of 8 (3 of 4 at home), Alverca 5 of 9 (3 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 62% and 54%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 62% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 57%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 100% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 59%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.36 (Benfica) v 1.04 (Alverca) give 66%; 30% weight: 61%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.