Serie B · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 21:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Athletic Club vs Ceara (Serie B, Monday, 2 November 2026) 43% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Athletic Club 33%, the draw 28% and Ceara 38%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Athletic Club win | 33% | |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Ceara win | 38% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 43 | 40% | 16% | 56% |
| Ceara | 34 | 38% | 15% | 53% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 37% | 36% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 48% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 68% | 82% | 50 |
| Ceara | 68% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Athletic Club season stats · Ceara season stats · Serie B table and form
League. Serie B has had over 2.5 goals in 41% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Athletic Club 17 of 43 (7 of 21 at home), Ceara 13 of 34 (4 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 40% and 39%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 40% and 39%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 40%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.15 (Athletic Club) v 1.26 (Ceara) give 44%; 30% weight: 41%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 43%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.