Serie A · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 19:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Atalanta vs Parma (Serie A, Monday, 2 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Atalanta 63%, the draw 23% and Parma 14%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Atalanta win | 63% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Parma win | 14% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 28% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 46% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 68% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Atalanta season stats · Parma season stats · Serie A table and form
League. Serie A has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Atalanta 6 of 8 (4 of 5 at home), Parma 5 of 8 (3 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 52%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 45% and 41%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 44%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 75% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.83 (Atalanta) v 0.72 (Parma) give 47%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.