Primera A · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 21:05 UK time
CompactStats rates Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC (Primera A, Monday, 2 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with Águilas Doradas 46%, the draw 28% and Fortaleza FC 27%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | Yes |
| Águilas Doradas win | 46% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Fortaleza FC win | 27% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas Doradas | 34 | 47% | 21% | 62% |
| Fortaleza FC | 34 | 50% | 24% | 74% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 50% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 40% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas Doradas | 68% | 90% | 50 |
| Fortaleza FC | 72% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 68% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Águilas Doradas season stats · Fortaleza FC season stats · Primera A table and form
League. Primera A has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Águilas Doradas 16 of 34 (11 of 17 at home), Fortaleza FC 17 of 34 (8 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 46% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 46% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 46%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 40% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 46%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.42 (Águilas Doradas) v 1.01 (Fortaleza FC) give 44%; 30% weight: 45%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.