Bundesliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz (Bundesliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Wolfsberger AC 24%, the draw 25% and Sturm Graz 51%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Wolfsberger AC win | 24% | |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Sturm Graz win | 51% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 67% | 22% | 44% |
| Sturm Graz | 9 | 44% | 22% | 56% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 37% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 70% | 76% | 50 |
| Sturm Graz | 62% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 76% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Wolfsberger AC season stats · Sturm Graz season stats · Bundesliga table and form
League. Bundesliga has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Wolfsberger AC 6 of 9 (3 of 5 at home), Sturm Graz 4 of 9 (2 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 57% and 51%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 56% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 52%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 71% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.08 (Wolfsberger AC) v 1.68 (Sturm Graz) give 52%; 30% weight: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.