Liga I · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 15:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani (Liga I, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Universitatea Craiova 81%, the draw 13% and FC Botosani 5%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | No |
| Universitatea Craiova win | 81% | Pick |
| Draw | 13% | |
| FC Botosani win | 5% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 49% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 50% | 50% | 33% |
| FC Botosani | 13 | 46% | 38% | 54% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 49% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 60% | 76% | 50 |
| FC Botosani | 68% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Universitatea Craiova season stats · FC Botosani season stats · Liga I table and form
League. Liga I has had over 2.5 goals in 47% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Universitatea Craiova 6 of 12 (5 of 7 at home), FC Botosani 6 of 13 (4 of 7 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 48% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 46% and 46%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 46%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 40% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 46%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.57 (Universitatea Craiova) v 0.51 (FC Botosani) give 59%; 30% weight: 50%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.