Bundesliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with Union Berlin 50%, the draw 25% and 1. FC Köln 25%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | – |
| Both teams to score | 59% | Yes |
| Union Berlin win | 50% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| 1. FC Köln win | 25% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 86% | |
| Goal in both halves | 65% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 7 | 57% | 57% | 43% |
| 1. FC Köln | 7 | 57% | 29% | 71% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 41% | 43% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 86% | 86% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 60% | 58% |
| Goal in both halves | 65% | 67% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 48% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 76% | 86% | 50 |
| 1. FC Köln | 70% | 86% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 78% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Union Berlin season stats · 1. FC Köln season stats · Bundesliga table and form
League. Bundesliga has had over 2.5 goals in 65% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Union Berlin 4 of 7 (2 of 4 at home), 1. FC Köln 4 of 7 (2 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 63% and 63%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 63% and 64%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 64%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 63%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.68 (Union Berlin) v 1.12 (1. FC Köln) give 53%; 30% weight: 60%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.