Liga 2 · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 (Liga 2, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with Tondela 49%, the draw 30% and Felgueiras 1932 21%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – |
| Both teams to score | 45% | No |
| Tondela win | 49% | Pick |
| Draw | 30% | |
| Felgueiras 1932 win | 21% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 8 | 38% | 0% | 25% |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 8 | 38% | 13% | 63% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 27% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 41% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 58% | 78% | 50 |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 66% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 76% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Tondela season stats · Felgueiras 1932 season stats · Liga 2 table and form
League. Liga 2 has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Tondela 3 of 8 (2 of 4 at home), Felgueiras 1932 3 of 8 (0 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 43% and 43%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 40%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 44%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 41%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.28 (Tondela) v 0.73 (Felgueiras 1932) give 33%; 30% weight: 39%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 41%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.