Superliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 12:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Tirana vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë (Superliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 41% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Tirana 32%, the draw 29% and Egnatia Rrogozhinë 40%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Tirana win | 32% | |
| Draw | 29% | Pick |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë win | 40% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 70% | |
| Goal in both halves | 49% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tirana | 7 | 71% | 57% | 57% |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 86% | 29% | 71% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 26% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 70% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 37% | 38% |
| Goal in both halves | 49% | 46% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tirana | 76% | 76% | 50 |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 74% | 62% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Tirana season stats · Egnatia Rrogozhinë season stats · Superliga table and form
League. Superliga has had over 2.5 goals in 38% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Tirana 5 of 7 (2 of 3 at home), Egnatia Rrogozhinë 6 of 7 (2 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 45% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 36% and 38%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 37%.
Head to head. 12 meetings in 3 years, 42% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 37%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.08 (Tirana) v 1.26 (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) give 42%; 30% weight: 39%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 41%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.